China Pet Industry Forecast
LASSO R²=0.9850 predicted a $52B market by 2026
0.9850
LASSO R²
$52B
Market by 2026
144.68M
Pets Predicted
82.8%
Capacity Utilization
China’s pet industry is growing faster than any forecasting model can keep up with. We built an integrated framework spanning four model families—ARIMAX-GARCH for temporal dynamics, VAR for cross-variable interactions, LASSO for driver identification (R²=0.9850), and Prophet for seasonal decomposition. Each model captures a dimension the others miss.
The HHI concentration index comparison against US and EU markets revealed China’s market is still fragmenting—the opposite of mature markets. Our ensemble projected 144.68M pets and 82.8% manufacturing capacity utilization by 2026, with a total market size exceeding $52 billion. The framework earned recognition at APMCM for methodological rigor.