China Pet Industry Forecast

China’s pet industry is growing faster than any forecasting model can keep up with. We built an integrated framework spanning four model families—ARIMAX-GARCH for temporal dynamics, VAR for cross-variable interactions, LASSO for driver identification (R²=0.9850), and Prophet for seasonal decomposition. Each model captures a dimension the others miss.

The HHI concentration index comparison against US and EU markets revealed China’s market is still fragmenting—the opposite of mature markets. Our ensemble projected 144.68M pets and 82.8% manufacturing capacity utilization by 2026, with a total market size exceeding $52 billion. The framework earned recognition at APMCM for methodological rigor.